Under the backdrop of the unprecedented crisis within the FTX group, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are plunging to new lows. Will cryptocurrencies manage to rebound or should we expect further falls in the coming days? The point in this analysis.
A fall in Bitcoin (BTC) to be expected towards $14,000?
It’s a tidal wave that has been shaking the cryptocurrency ecosystem for the past few days.
Because of this unprecedented crisis within the FTX group, the bitcoin price (BTC) crashed this week below $15,500 and brought with it the fall of altcoins to new lows that had not been visited since November 2020.
If the situation seems quite uncertain, especially for customers of the FTX platform who saw their assets frozen very quickly after the first rumors of the platform’s insolvency, cryptocurrencies are threatening to start falling again despite an economic context on the markets. traditional ones which nevertheless seemed to be improving.
The news shows us a decorrelation between cryptocurrencies and stock marketswhich had not happened for a long time.
So, what levels should we watch for the next few days?
Figure 1 – Bitcoin Daily price chart
In our previous analyses, we had observed the rejection of the price on the middle of the range (blue rectangle) which has been building for several months now. This lateralization will have finally waited for the events of recent days to have a resolution, here from below.
Following the breakout of this range, the objective to aim for initially seems to be $14,300, which corresponds to the height of a Bear Flag that we have been monitoring for several months. The target was triggered a long time ago and the price thus follows our preferred scenario.
When the price reaches $14,300, it will be necessary to observe its reaction to know if we are likely to have touched a bottom.
On the weekly chart, we have a Falling Wedge in which the price has been moving since the beginning of this Bear Market. We can imagine that breaking it from the top would trigger a new bullish rally.
Unfortunately, we still have the Cloud, Kijun (purple) and Tenkan (turquoise) that stand in the way of prices and which threatens a return to the low support of the triangle near $14,000.
What is relevant, that this support level corresponds in all respects to our daily objective, but also to a Fibonacci extension which gives the target level of $1.618 to $13,965 if we take the last high points.
Figure 2 – Bitcoin Weekly price chart
Everything therefore seems to indicate a return of Bitcoin to around $14,000. To invalidate this scenario, it will absolutely be necessary to win back the Kijun around $20,000a level which would also correspond to the upper part of the falling wedge in yellow and therefore to its breakout.
If we break this pattern from above in the next few weeks, then we might have touched the bottom of this Bear Market.
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Ether (ETH) on its way to $762?
After a strong rejection on its Weekly Kijun, the price of Ether (ETH) is starting to fall again this week and is also threatening to break its range from below.
Following the partial rotation operated on the middle of the range, we now have a high probability of getting out of this sideways downside with the target at $762 which corresponds to the height of the Ascending Bevel transferred to the place of the break.
Figure 3 – Ether price chart (Daily)
To invalidate our bearish target, it will be imperative to leave above $2,000 (top of the range) to form a new high point in this market and therefore obtain a breakout of the bearish pattern. For the moment, we must therefore once again favor bearish set-ups and objectives.
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Conclusion of this technical analysis
Bitcoin and Ether go down againin search of a new bottom that will allow the ecosystem to set off again serenely towards a new bullish cycle.
In addition to technical analysis, it will obviously be necessary to take into account the macroeconomic context as well as the crypto news relating to FTX which are likely to be more than decisive for the future.
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Chart sources: TradingView
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