Bitcoin November 4, 2022 – US puts bears out of work

Inflection – Bitcoin (BTC) price is reclaiming $21,000 as the latest US unemployment figures may make the US Federal Reserve less hawkish about upcoming interest rate hikes.

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A saving unemployment rate for the price of Bitcoin

Bitcoin price rises to $21,290 on Bitfinex today, November 4, 2022. Cryptocurrency is trading at $21,127 at the time of writing this article. Its price is currently registering a daily gain of 4.29%.

Bitcoin Recovers $21,000 As US Unemployment Figures For October Come In Higher Than Expected At 3.7% against 3.6%.

A few hours before the publication of these data, the founder of the trading company Eight, Michaël van de Poppe, had noted that in such a pattern, the dollar would suffer losses, unlike the price of Bitcoin which would then register increases.

Compared to September’s unemployment rate of 3.5%, October’s figures are thus up 0.2%.

Next rate hike: will the long-awaited pivot finally happen?

The markets could interpret this rise in the unemployment rate as the harbinger of a potential slowdown in future increases interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. Fed officials had said the unemployment rate would need to reach at least 4% to slow inflation.

Data provided by the CME FedWatch Tool also shows that the probability of an upcoming increase in the target range of the federal funds rate to 4.25% – 4.50%, currently stands at 61.5%compared to 47.2% 24 hours ago.

The rise in unemployment rates therefore revives hopes of a future increase of 50 basis pointsrather than 75 basis points, in the federal funds rate.

This scenario, if it materializes, would benefit risky assets at the expense of the dollar, which lost 1.90% on a daily basis, today. The DXY broke below the 111 mark. Its value currently stands at 110.79 after opening the day at 112.98.

A change in the macroeconomic environment would confirm the optimistic forecasts based on this on-chain data. In the very short term, the next weekly close will allow us to assess the solidity of the current rises.

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