Bitcoin November 5, 2022 – Bulls Win a Battle, War Soon?

Threat under $20,000 really remote? – It was time for Bitcoin (BTC) to decide to break out of its waiting position around the 2017 ATH. a larger margin compared to previous weeks. Which, of course, makes bears cringe when they almost show signs of doubt.

Moreover, the latest technical analyzes currently confirm this slight recovery in the price of BTC. To the point that the continuation of its bear run since its last ATH in November 2021 is once again postponed. We will not deny that the bulls have won a battle against the bears in recent hours. But there is still work to do to hope to revive the prospect of a favorable trend reversal.

In a gloomy market context but jostled by hopes on both sides, let’s see what we could expect about the evolution of the king of cryptos in the days/weeks to come.

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Bitcoin in weekly units – Prices above the Tenkan

Via a second consecutive bullish candle in weekly units, Bitcoin is currently crossing the Tenkan while waiting for the weekend. Simultaneously, the Chikou Span would validate its throwback on $20,000. That being said, the main obstacles to a major boom still remain.

First, and despite this recent rebound, the status quo of BTC prices and the Chikou Span under the Kumo (Ichimoku cloud) continue to bog down. Unless surprise, there is a good chance that this will continue, at least until the end of the year. Second, the Kijun is accelerating lower as it heads back towards the resistance at $26,000. And lately, the thickness of the future Kumo increases with a lower limit of the Kumo, the Senkou Span A (SSA), which tends to decrease. This does not encourage optimism in the quest for a new bull run in 2023.

Assuming that BTC prices assert themselves beyond the Tenkan, they would potentially join the Kijun and the $26,000. In which case, we would have a double bottom. And while still premature as we speak, validation of this chart pattern would offer explosive upside potential. This would propel the king of cryptos into a price zone between $30,000-35,000. But before considering this scenario, let’s take a look at the technical analysis in daily units, which itself could contain other favorable technical signals.

Bitcoin in Daily Units – Prices Now Above Kumo

Things change from week to week. And it finally turns momentarily in favor of the bulls. In effect, Bitcoin prices climb back above Kumo in daily units for the first time since last spring. Although we should be happy about it, the Chikou Span could come up against the resistance of $22,000 and the upper limit of the Kumo, the Senkou Span B, depending on future movements.

Bitcoin price analysis in daily units - November 05, 2022

But if things went smoothly, BTC would potentially move towards $26,000. And at the same time, it would coincide with a favorable alignment of the Chikou Span beyond the cloud. In contrast, an abort of this rebound would perhaps spell the end of the bulls’ last hopes. In this case, we would put the threat under $20,000 back on the table. With the ultimate fear of a corrective wave that would take us towards $16,000, then $12,000 if we follow the logic of the technical analysis.

The fact that the bulls are winning a battle does not naively mean that Bitcoin’s bear run since its last ATH in November 2021 is coming to an end. As I said a little earlier in the article, let’s stay measured on the recent rebound that has taken shape since last week. Especially since we have accumulated a fifteen percent rise since crossing the descending line in mid-October.

Moreover, the damage left by the previous wave of correction since the fatal failure under $46,000 unfortunately indicates a crisis of confidence in the king of cryptos (or cryptocurrencies in general). In this sense, it is difficult to convince investors who are very burned by what happened last spring. For rightly, we no longer have positive catalysts such as central bank liquidity and negative interest rates.

For the BTC to resume its solid forward march, a decorrelation from the equity indices would prove to be beneficial in the long term. But given the state of the situation in terms of inflation, we fear that this battle won by the bulls is once again only an illusion to turn away from the real major risks.

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