The king of the crypts again at the mercy of bears? – Many investors began to dream of a resounding comeback in the price of Bitcoin after their good reaction to the latest inflation figures in the US. Except the FED cooled their enthusiasm by showing its muscles the next day. It actually plans to raise the terminal rate to 5.1%, i.e. in a range between 5%-5.25%. And given that we are now between 4.25%-4.5%, there is still room for monetary tightening to last at least until March 2023.
And moreover, the disappointment was heavy to wipe out for all risky asset classes without exception. While there was great expectation of a change in monetary policy from the US central bank. As for the king of cryptos, he came back very close to his danger zone at the worst time. The latest technical analysis tends to raise fears of another cold snap on prices.
Bitcoin in weekly units – Prices fail during Tenkan
As we speak, Bitcoin exists beyond the descending line. But we fear that the bulls will be picked off again, as was the case a month ago with a false buy signal. Because precisely, it currently fails during Tenkanwhich itself acts as resistance in weekly units.
To make matters worse, and while this is no surprise to some of JDC’s readership, BTC prices and Chikou Span are still digging their respective graves under Kumo (Ichimoku Cloud) since last May. With special attention to the curve of the Japanese technical indicator, which must not move away from the prices of the king of cryptos under penalty to finally validate a new wave of correction in the event of a break of $16,000.
Based on this pessimistic scenario, we would ring the alarm bells against the $12,000 support. Otherwise, holding $16,000 would again move away from the danger zone by offering a last chance to cross the Tenkan and get closer to $20,000 or the 2017 ATH.
>> Not your keys not your bitcoins! Choose a foolproof hardware wallet, choose Ledger (commercial link) <
Bitcoin in Daily Units – Prices below Tenkan and Kijun
After the Fed meeting, Bitcoin prices abruptly aborted their rally against Kumo via a doji followed by two consecutive daily candles heading into the weekend. At the same time, they successively break Tenkan and Kijun with the threat of retesting the $16,000 support. Which at the same time would drag the Chikou span into trouble.
At least since the end of last spring, the king of cryptos still has the worst problems to cross the Ichimoku cloud in daily units. And as proof, all attempts to rebound were futile. Still, it’s not for lack of trying on the Bulls’ part.
The possible breakout of $16,000 would confirm a perfect adverse adjustment of BTC and Chikou Span prices below the Kumo on both the daily and weekly chart. Therefore, we would validate a real sell signal in favor of the bears, which, as a reminder, have been revived since the collapse of FTX.
Conversely, it would be necessary at all costs to regain the ground at the beginning of the week. But with the fear that fundamentally positive catalysts will be conspicuous by their absence. At best, the bulls would take solace in a return of Bitcoin prices inside the Kumo. And probably not above the $20,000 that now acts as resistance.
In summary, this week is the week of the return of volatility, so is likely to leave traces on the bull side. It was enough for FED to set the record at the last meeting of the year. With all the risky asset classes that have taken for their rank.
Although this is not the desired goal, it is clear that the facts are partially verified. Especially since many investors could quickly be caught off guard by betting prematurely on a linear decline in dollar and bond yields.
Without higher prior highs and lows and catalysts to calm the current uncertainty in financial markets, Bitcoin’s bear run since its last ATH in November 2021 would be far from a REST IN PEACE to reach its conclusion. Otherwise, the return to the danger zone would confirm the hypothesis that the capitulation phase would not really take place despite the heavy losses suffered.
Be that as it may, the days/weeks are likely to be lively on the financial planet before the end of the year. Perhaps a perfect opportunity to get serious about learning trading while things calm down?
In crypto, do not skimp on caution! So to keep your crypto assets safe, the best solution is still a personal hardware wallet. At Ledger, there is something for all profiles and all cryptos. Don’t wait to secure your capital (commercial link)