The dollar falls, Bitcoin collapses – Le Point Macro-Hebdo

Cryptocurrencies in the hard– Since the start of the case FTX, Bitcoin fell 25% and Ethereum fell more than 30%. Cryptocurrencies will probably take time to digest this new fiasco from a technical point of view. The US market, for its part, seems to be recovering since the announcement of the slowdown in inflation. However, the economic situation still seems complicated for the big players in the S&P 500. Indeed, Amazon has announced the layoff of 10,000 employees, or 1% of its total workforce. How low could Bitcoin drop? What is the level that buyers absolutely need to find? Is the US market changing momentum? This is Le Point Macro Hebdo!

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The two scenarios for Bitcoin in the medium term

Another complicated week is coming for cryptocurrencies. After several months of holding around $19,000Bitcoin fell to $15,600. Bitcoin broke its weekly support at $19,000, the sellers have regained control over the price:

Bitcoin price against the dollar (1W)

From a technical point of view, the price of Bitcoin was always bearish on a weekly basis, as evidenced by the institutional bias (EMA 9/ EMA 18) bearish. The price was once again rejected at the EMAs and the support gave way. The question that now arises is the following: is this technical break largely linked to the problems encountered by the FTX platform? Is the current movement just one DETOUR ? Here are the levels to look at to answer these questions:

  • Price recovers area at $19,000 : this is the scenario in green on the graph, the scenario bullish. The movement is not accepted by the operators and the buyers manage to resume the level of bracket at $19,000. If this is the case, the movement will have been only one DETOUR classes.
  • The $19,000 level is providing resistance : this is the scenario in red on the graph, the scenario bearish. The price could then join the next weekly support Between $11,000 and $12,000. A price that has not been touched since October 2020.

the stochastic shows a bullish divergence weekly. This does not mean that the decline is over, but it seems that the sellers are running out of steam. The very powerful movement known in March 2020 had generated a bullish divergence in weekly and had marked the bottom of the cryptocurrency market.

Risk off: The dollar falls, gold wakes up

The dollar experiences a local top

Last week, Le Point Macro Hebdo mentioned the possibility of experiencing a best local on the dollar. It lacked a strong rejection under the support to 109 dotsit is now done:

The dollar index is experiencing a local top.
Dollar index chart (3D)

In this unit of time, the dollar marks a best local breaking a level support important and changing dynamics. To mark a local top in weekly, it will be necessary that the zone to 109 dots do resistance and the price marks a new low (red arrow). A top on the dollar index chart suggests a return to theattractiveness side risky asset. Momentum is also changing momentum, a sign that buyers are struggling to sustain momentum.

At the same time, the US market is taking advantage of this to bounce. Will cryptocurrencies also be able to take advantage of the dollar weakness ? This is what the momentum of Bitcoin seems to indicate, it now remains to to confirm.

Gold chooses to rally

The gold was stuck under the weekly supportbut the buyers managed to regain control of the price:

Gold returns to the weekly range between $1,690 and $1,970.
Price of gold against the dollar (3D)

The price of gold marks a double bottom in unit of time 3 days and weekly. The course is again within the weekly range Between $1,690 and $1,970. The danger of a change in long-term momentum is removed as long as the price is above $1,615. Now the price is moving above the bearish trendline and the dynamic is bullish. The price could again attack the top of the range at $1,970.

Momentum is also bullish in 3 days, it is necessary to maintain this momentum on the buyer side.

The US market benefits from the fall of the dollar

The S&P 500 climbs back above $3,900

The US market benefits from the dollar weaknessthe price could change momentum in the short term:

The S&P 500 is recovering.
Price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (3D)

If the S&P 500 manages to maintain the level at $3,900buyers could push up to $4,150. This is the next level of resistance with the presence of bearish trendline. This one could dismiss the course (red arrow) again. If the top is present on the dollar, the US market could take advantage of this to rise again (green arrow scenario). Attention, the dynamic is always weekly bearish and the bearish trendline could act as resistance in the coming days. It will be necessary to change momentum on a weekly basis and evolve above the bearish trendline to return to bullishness on this index.

The momentum is above the bearish trendline and it seems to change momentum. We must continue to see troughs and ascending peaks to find a clear bullish momentum.

The NASDAQ could change momentum

The dynamic could become again bullish in unit of time 3 days. For this, the price must have a close higher than $11,670 by tomorrow :

The NASDAQ could change momentum on a weekly basis.
NASDAQ price against the dollar (3D)

In the event of a fence above $11,670the dynamic would pass bullish in 3 days on the NASDAQ. The price will then have to rub shoulders with the resistance and at the bearish trendline at $12,000. The resistance to $12,000 will be an important level to exceed. Buyers must defend the support to $11,000 to avoid an additional fall of more than 10%which would bring the course back to $9,700.

For its part, momentum is showing resilience by not marking a low since January 2022. However, the RSI could be dismiss at the level of bearish trendline in the days or weeks to come.

the Bitcoin broke a technical zone important which corresponds to the level of the top of the end of 2017. The buyers must recover the zone at $19,000 on a weekly basis to show that it was only a deviation. If rejected, Bitcoin could reach the next support located at $11,000-12,000. While the dollar is weakening, cryptocurrencies are not benefiting from it at the moment. Once the FTX affair has been digested, could cryptocurrencies recover in a less hostile environment for risky assets? The US market, for its part, is taking the opportunity to rebound and could change momentum in the short term.

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